Did Israeli officials think, even for a fleeting moment, that their army's attacks could halt, as opposed to intensify, Palestinian rockets or retaliatory violence?
Was the Israeli bloodletting in Gaza solely relevant to the Gaza/Hamas context, or is there a regional dimension that is largely being overlooked?
In an al-Jazeera English TV discussion, Israeli journalist Gideon
Levy and al-Quds al-Arabi editor-in-chief Abd al-Bari Atwan attempted
to decipher Israel's actions in Gaza which have, since February 27,
killed more than 120 Palestinians and four Israeli soldiers. These
attacks were followed by incursions and further violence, including an
attack on a Jewish seminary school in Jerusalem.
Levy
explained that Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak wanted to
demonstrate to the Israeli public that he was "doing something" about
the regular launching of rockets from Gaza. Although Levy wasn't
justifying the Israeli government's inhumane and misguided logic, he
disagreed with Atwan over the use of terminology. The latter (who is
also an outstanding journalist) had asserted that the killings in Gaza
represented a form of "genocide" and "ethnic cleansing".
Arab
intellectuals, often wary of the use of certain terminology - since
Western sensibilities don't accept associating Israel with genocide and
ethnic cleansing - became less hesitant after Israeli Deputy Defense
Minister Matan Vilnai warned Palestinians in a radio interview to
expect a "bigger Holocaust".
But terminology aside, are we to
really believe that the wanton killing in Gaza - a major violation of
international and humanitarian laws - was meant to send a message to
the Israeli public, or to carry out genocide for its own sake?
Initially,
albeit unsurprisingly, the Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas
seemed oblivious, and then at best neutral, to the carnage. First, it
asked both Israel and Hamas to cease their violence, and then it
accused Israel of attempting to "derail" the peace process (what peace
process?). Finally, and only after the Vatican, thankfully, decried the
Israeli killings, Abbas announced the halt of all contacts with Israel.
A few days later, following a trip by US Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice to the region, Abbas reversed his position. Nabil Abu
Rudeineh, spokesman of the presidency, quoted Abbas as stating that "we
intend to resume the peace talks with Israel which reserve the aim of
ending the occupation".
Considering the heavy toll that
Palestinians endured by a deliberate Israeli attempt to cause a "bigger
holocaust", Abbas' agreement to the resumption of futile chats with the
same men who ordered the death of scores of his people is a mockery to
say the least.
While Palestinian, Israeli and international
responses to violence remain predictable, this view still doesn't
explain the timing or the underlying objectives.
In my view,
historically, Israel's behavior, regardless of its outcome, is always
politically motivated, and it never fails to keep a regional picture in
mind.
There are two lines of military logic that Israel
resorts to. One is motivated by the "chaos theory", the idea that
seemingly minor events accumulate to have complex and massive effects
on dynamic natural systems. For example, Gaza might have been attacked
with the hope of provoking a streak of suicide bombings that would
eventually be blamed on Syrian planning and Iranian financing - thus
provoking a major showdown in Lebanon. The history of Israeli-Arab
conflicts demonstrates how many major invasions are justified by
seemingly irrelevant events, such as the 1982 Lebanon War.
But is Israel capable of sustaining another conflict in Lebanon after its miserable - and costly - failure in July-August 2006?
That's
when the US becomes even more relevant. Just as Israeli attacks
occupied major headlines around the world, the USS Cole and two
additional ships - including one amphibious assault vessel - were
quietly making their way from Malta to the shores of Lebanon. The ships
were dispatched as a "show of support for regional stability",
according to US Navy officials.
With the gung-ho George W Bush
administration's time in office coming to an end and waning public
enthusiasm for war against Iran, Israel cannot afford allowing the
regional setup to be stacked in the following way: Hezbollah dominating
south Lebanon, Hamas dominating Gaza and Iran becoming an increasingly
formidable regional power.
This leads to the other line of
Israeli military logic, the "big bang" theory. The self-explanatory
logic of this theory is applicable in the sense that a regional war -
accompanied by mini civil wars in Palestine and Lebanon, along with
other attempts at destabilizing Iran and Syria - could work in Israel's
favor.
Under no condition would the US be able stay out of
such a conflict (considering its regional interests, allies and own war
in Iraq). Revelations of the sinister role played by the Bush
administration in organizing and provoking a civil war among
Palestinians shows the extent to which Bush is willing to go to achieve
Israel's objectives. More, it shows the willingness of various Arab and
Palestinian players to readily participate in the bloody and costly
US-Israeli ventures.
With all due respect to Levy and Atwan, I
think Israel's main aim was neither to send a message to its public nor
to commit genocide - though these are not unreasonable possibilities.
Indeed, the majority of the Israeli public, according to a Tel Aviv
University poll, wished that their government would negotiate a
ceasefire with Hamas, as bombs were falling atop the hapless Gaza
residents.
The facts - as demonstrated by the US-Israeli role
in the turmoil in Lebanon, the consistent attempt to arraign Iran, and
the Israeli provocations and bombings in Syria - all indicate that
Israel's plans are regional, with Gaza being a testing ground, and the
least costly target to isolate and brutalize. Already a massive
concentration camp with a largely starving population, Gaza has
provided Israel with a perfect opportunity to start sending stern
messages to the other players in the region.
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