Pacific Free Press was launched in March 2007 by Dutch-Canadian Richard
Kastelein of V.O.F. Expathos, in the Netherlands along with Chris Cook- CFUV radio journalist and Editor in Chief of Pacific Free Press. Cook is based in , Victoria, British Columbia.
The mission of Pacific Free Press is simple: to dig out nuggets of truth from
the slag-heap of lies, ignorance and witless diversion that has buried
public discourse today. Pacific Free Press provides a new venue for
disseminating hard news and insightful, fact-based analysis of the
harsh realities too often ignored or distorted by the mainstream press.
On Success, the Surge, and the Baghdad Morgue Queue
The Corpse on the Gurney: The "Success" Mantra in Iraq
By Tom Engelhardt The other day, as we reached the first anniversary of the President's announcement of his "surge" strategy, his "new way forward" in Iraq, I found myself thinking about the earliest paid book-editing work I ever did.
An editor at a San Francisco textbook publisher hired me to "doctor" god-awful texts designed for audiences of captive kids.
Each of these "books" was not only in a woeful state of disrepair, but essentially D.O.A. I was nonetheless supposed to do a lively rewrite of the mess and add seductive "sidebars"; another technician then simplified the language to "grade level" and a designer provided a flashy layout and look.
During the years that I freelanced for that company in the early
1970s, an image of what I was doing formed in my mind -- and it
suddenly came back to me this week. I used to describe it this way:
The
little group of us -- rewriter, grade-level reducer, designer -- would
be summoned to the publisher's office. There, our brave band of
technicians would be ushered into a room in which there would be
nothing but a gurney with a corpse on it in a state of advanced
decomposition. The publisher's representative would then issue a simple
request: Make it look like it can get up and walk away.
And
the truth was: that corpse of a book would be almost lifelike when we
were done with it, but one thing was guaranteed -- it would never
actually get up and walk away.
That was in another century and
a minor matter of bad books that no one wanted to call by their
rightful name. But that image came to mind again more than three
decades later because it's hard not to think of America's Iraq in
similar terms. Only this week, Abdul Qadir, the Iraqi defense minister,
announced that "his nation would not be able to take full
responsibility for its internal security until 2012, nor be able on its
own to defend Iraq's borders from external threat until at least 2018."
Pentagon officials, reported Thom Shanker of the New York Times,
expressed no surprise at these dismal post-surge projections, although
they were "even less optimistic than those [Qadir] made last year."
According
to this guesstimate then, the U.S. military occupation of Iraq won't
end for, minimally, another ten years. President Bush confirmed this on
his recent Mideast jaunt when, in response to a journalist's question,
he said that the U.S. stay in Iraq "could easily be" another decade or
more.
Folks, our media may be filled with discussions about
just how "successful" the President's surge plan has been, but really,
Iraq is the corpse in the room.
"Success" as a Mantra
Last
January, after announcing his "surge strategy," the President called in
his technicians. As it turned out, Gen. David Petraeus, surge commander
in Iraq, has been quite impressive, as has new U.S. ambassador to that
country, Ryan Crocker. Think of them as "the undertakers," since
they've been the ones who, applying their skills, have managed to give
that Iraqi corpse the faint glow of life. The President asked them to
make Iraq look like it could get up and walk away -- and the last year
of "success," widely trumpeted in the media, has been the result. But
just think about what the defense minister and President Bush are
promising: By 2018, the country will -- supposedly -- be able to
control its own borders, one of the more basic acts of a sovereign
state. That, by itself, tells you much of what you need to be know.
In
order to achieve an image of lifelike quiescence in Iraq, involving a
radical lowering of "violence" in that country, the general and
ambassador did have to give up the ghost on a number of previous Bush
administration passions. Rebellious al-Anbar Province was, for
instance, essentially turned over to members of the community (many of
whom had, even according to the Department of Defense, been fighting
Americans until recently). They were then armed and paid by the U.S.
not to make too much trouble. In the Iraqi capital, on the other hand,
the surging American military looked the other way as, in the first
half of 2007, the Shiite "cleansing" of mixed Baghdad neighborhoods
reached new heights, transforming it into a largely Shiite city. This
may have been the real "surge" in Iraq and, if you look at new maps of
the ethnic make-up of the capital, you can see the startling results --
from which a certain quiescence followed. Powerful Shiite cleric
Muqtada al-Sadr, a longtime opponent of the Bush administration, called
a "truce" during the surge months and went about purging and
reorganizing his powerful militia, the Mahdi Army. In exchange, the
U.S. has given up, at least temporarily, its goal of wresting control
of some of those neighborhoods from the Sadrists.
Despite
hailing the recent passage of what might be called a modest
re-Baathification law in the Iraqi Parliament (that may have little
effect on actual government employment), the administration has also
reportedly given up in large part on pushing its highly touted
"benchmarks" for the Iraqis to accomplish. This was to be a crucial
part of Iraqi political "reconciliation" (once described as the key to
the success of the whole surge strategy). It has now been dumped for
so-called Iraqi solutions. All of this, including the lack of U.S.
patrolling in al-Anbar province, the heartland of the Sunni insurgency,
plus the addition of almost 30,000 troops in Baghdad and environs, has
indeed given Iraq a quieter look -- especially in the United States,
where Iraqi news has largely disappeared from front pages and slipped
deep into prime-time TV news coverage just as the presidential campaign
of 2008 heats up.
The surge was always, in a sense, a gamble
for time, a pacification program directed at the "home front" in the
President's Global War on Terror as well as at Iraq itself. And if this
is what you mean by "success" in Iraq, Bush has indeed succeeded
admirably. As in the Vietnam era, when President Richard Nixon began
"Vietnamizing" that war, a reduction of American casualties has had the
effect of turning media attention elsewhere.
So another year
has now passed in a country that we plunged into an unimaginable
charnel-house state. Whether civilian dead between the invasion of 2003
and mid-2006 (before the worst year of civil-war level violence even
hit) was in the range of 600,000 as a study in the British medical
journal, The Lancet reported or 150,000 as a recent World Health
Organization study suggests, whether two million or 2.5 million Iraqis
have fled the country, whether 1.1 million or more than two million
have been displaced internally, whether electricity blackouts and water
shortages have marginally increased or decreased, whether the country's
health-care system is beyond resuscitation or could still be revived,
whether Iraqi oil production has nearly crept back to the low point of
the Saddam Hussein-era or not, whether fields of opium poppies are, for
the first time, spreading across the country's agricultural lands or
still relatively localized, Iraq is a continuing disaster zone on a
catastrophic scale hard to match in recent memory.
What Bush
has done with his surge, however, is buy himself that year-plus of free
time, while he negotiates with Iraq's inside-the-Green-Zone government
to cement in place an endless American presence there. In the process,
he may create a sense of permanency that no future president will prove
capable of tampering with -- not without being known as the man (or
woman) who "lost" Iraq. Forget the Republican presidential candidates
-- Sen. John McCain, for instance, has said that he doesn't care if the
U.S. is in Iraq for the next hundred years -- and think about the
leading Democratic candidates with their elongated (and partial)
"withdrawal" plans. Barack Obama, for instance, is for guaranteeing a
16-month withdrawal schedule, and that's just for U.S. "combat troops,"
which are only perhaps half of all American forces in the country.
Hillary Clinton's plan is no more promising.
The President's
gamble, so far "successful," has been that the look of returning life
in Iraq will last at least long enough for him to turn a marginally
"successful" war over to the next administration. If the Democrats
sweep to power, he hopes to stick them with that war. As Michael Hirsh
of Newsweek put the matter recently, while discussing the President's
trip to the Middle East: "Far away in the Persian Gulf, Bush is
creating facts on the ground that the next president may not be able to
ignore." (Of course, this assumes that the Iraqis will comply.)
In
that case, here would be another piece of potential Bush "success":
Nine months into any new presidential term and the Iraq War is yours.
(Those of us old enough to remember have already lived through this
scenario once with "Lyndon Johnson's war" in Vietnam, so how does
"Barack Obama's war" sound?) Then, former Bush administration
officials, Republicans of all stripes, neocons, and an array of pundits
will turn on those uncelebratory Democrats who, they will claim,
managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of "success," if not victory.
Wait for it.
Victory Laps and Other Celebrations
But
folks, let's face it, despite the cosmetic acts of the President and
his undertakers, America's Iraq is still a corpse. And yet, in this
"post-surge" moment, everybody is arguing over just how "successful"
the surge has been. All agree it has "lowered violence" in Iraq. The
Democrats insist that the plan's "success" is limited indeed, because
its main goal, "political reconciliation," has not been reached. On the
other hand, Republicans, assorted neocons, and some in the
administration are already doing modest victory dances. The newest New
York Times columnist, William Kristol, a man previously known for being
endlessly wrong on his Iraqi war of choice, just last week chided the
Democrats in his typical way:
"It's apparently impermissible for
leading Democrats to acknowledge -- let alone celebrate -- progress in
Iraq."
Let the celebrations begin! In the White House, anyway.
After all, whatever Iraq news breaks out of the inside pages of the
paper is now often framed by this ongoing dispute about the how much
surge and post-surge success has happened, about how much to celebrate,
and that is another sign of success for the President. No wonder, as
Michael Abramowitz of the Washington Post put it, Bush's recent meeting
in Kuwait with Gen. Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker, as well as his
comments to a rally of 3,000 hoo-ahing U.S. troops, "had the air of a
victory lap for a president whose decision to raise the troop levels in
Iraq last year was questioned not only by Democrats but also by many
Republicans and even generals at the Pentagon."
But folks,
George W. Bush can lap the Middle East, the planet, the solar system
and America's Iraq is still never going to get up and walk away. Not
even in 2018 or 2028. Don't forget, it's a corpse. (In fact, unlike the
politicians and the media, recent opinion polls show that the American
people generally have not forgotten this.)
In the meantime,
the military in Iraq is preparing for something other than a simple
victory lap, just in case the President's surge luck doesn't quite
extend to 2009. Former brigadier general and Deputy Assistant Secretary
of Defense for Middle Eastern Affairs Mark Kimmitt, for instance,
recently suggested that there was "only a mild chance" that surge
security gains would prove permanent: "[I]f I had to put a number to
it, maybe it's three in 10, maybe it's 50-50, if we play our cards
right."
In fact, General Petraeus and the rest of the U.S.
military are faced with a relatively simple calculus for their
exhausted, overstretched, overused forces among whom the rate of
post-traumatic stress syndrome has tripled. Although the President
recently insisted that he would be happy to slow down or halt an
expected drawdown of 30,000 surge troops by July, the fact is that
present military manpower levels there are literally unsustainable --
especially since 3,200 Marines are now being committed to the ever less
successful Afghan War. Drawdowns are a must and "successful" Iraq,
already experiencing signs of another uptick in violence and death
(including of American troops) in the new year, is likely to need a
dose of something else soon, if that faint glow of life is to be
sustained.
One candidate for that, as American troop levels
drop, is air power, a much underreported subject in both Iraq and
Afghanistan. In Iraq, according to a recent study by the Center for
Strategic and International Studies, the use of air power took a
striking leap forward in 2007. According to the study, the number of
Close Air Support/Precision Strikes -- sorties that used a major
munition -- in Iraq went up five-fold between 2006 and 2007 (not
including December of that year), from 229 to 1,119 or, on average,
from 19 per month to 102 per month. 2008 started with a literal bang,
40,000 pounds of explosives were dropped in ten minutes on 38 targets
in a Sunni farming area on "the outskirts" of Baghdad. After 10
preceding days of intermittent air attacks, this was probably the
largest display of air power since the 2003 invasion. It was also
undoubtedly a harbinger of things to come and, of course, guaranteed to
drive up the number of civilian dead.
Similarly, between
January and October 2007, according to the Associated Press, the U.S.
military more than doubled its use of armed and unarmed drone aircraft,
which clocked 500,000-plus hours in the air (mainly in Iraq). This is
undoubtedly a taste of what "success" means in the year to come.
Dancing on a Corpse
So,
here's a simple reality check: The whole discussion of, and argument
about, "success" in Iraq is, in fact, obscene. Given what has already
happened to that country -- and will continue to happen as long as the
U.S. remains an occupying power there -- the very category of "success"
is an obscenity. If violence actually does stay down there, that may be
a modest godsend for Iraqis, but it can hardly be considered a sign of
American "success."
Every now and then, history comes in
handy. In a previous moment, when the neocons and their allied pundits
were feeling particularly triumphant, they began touting Bush's America
as the planet's new Rome (only more so). That talk evaporated once Iraq
went into full-scale insurgency mode (and Afghanistan followed). But
perhaps Rome does remain a touchstone of a sort for administration
Iraqi policies.
What comes to mind is the Roman historian
Tacitus' description of the Roman way of war. He put his version of it
into the mouth of Calgacus, a British chieftain who opposed the Romans,
and it went, in part, like this:
"They have plundered the
world, stripping naked the land in their hunger, they loot even the
ocean: they are driven by greed, if their enemy be rich; by ambition,
if poor; neither the wealth of the east nor the west can satisfy them:
they are the only people who behold wealth and indigence with equal
passion to dominate. They ravage, they slaughter, they seize by false
pretenses, and all of this they hail as the construction of empire. And
when in their wake nothing remains but a desert, they call that peace."
Folks, it's obscene.
We're doing victory laps around, and dancing upon, a corpse.
Tom
Engelhardt, who runs the Nation Institute's Tomdispatch.com, is the
co-founder of the American Empire Project. His book, The End of Victory
Culture (University of Massachusetts Press), has been thoroughly
updated in a newly issued edition that deals with victory culture's
crash-and-burn sequel in Iraq.
[Note: I'd like to offer one of
my periodic bows to the invaluable sites that give me special help in
collecting information on Iraq, especially Juan Cole's Informed
Comment, Paul Woodward's The War in Context, the daily Media Patrol
summaries at Cursor.org, and the enormous range of pieces posted every
day at Antiwar.com. In addition, thanks to Yasmin Madadi for research
help and Michael Schwartz for advice. If you want to check out that
CSIS airpower study yourself, click here (PDF file).]