[Editors Note: As George W. Bush tries to squeeze 16 more months
of political advantage from Americas 9/11 memories, it is worth
recalling how different history might have been had the Bush
administration heeded intelligence warnings in the summer of 2001. ]
Escalation
By 1996, pressure from
the United States and other countries persuaded the Sudanese government
to expel bin Laden and his organization. Bin Laden left Sudan on May
19, 1996, and returned to his old sanctuary in Afghanistan.
Though
in a weakened position, bin Laden began reviving al-Qaeda in the
mountains of Afghanistan, with the protection of the Pakistani
intelligence services and the fundamentalist Taliban government in
Kabul.
Bin Laden rebuilt his financial structure, set up
training camps and forged alliances with other extremist organizations,
such as the Egyptian Islamic Jihad led by exile Ayman al-Zawahiri. On
Feb. 23, 1998, a resurgent bin Laden issued another fatwa against the
United States, specifically authorizing his followers to kill Americans
whether they were civilian or military.
Five months later, on
Aug. 7, 1998, al-Qaeda militants struck at the U.S. embassies in
Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The bombing of the Nairobi
embassy killed 12 Americans and 201 others.
In Dar es Salaam, 11
people died. Bin Laden declared publicly that if inciting attacks
intended to drive Americans and Jews from the Islamic holy lands is a
crime, let history be a witness that I am a criminal.
After
the embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, President Bill Clinton
ordered heightened attention on bin Laden and al-Qaeda, looking for
ways of getting the terrorist leader expelled from Afghanistan or
killed.
On Aug. 20, 1998, the United States launched a missile
strike against bin Ladens Afghan base, killing about two dozen people
but missing bin Laden, who was believed to have left the compound a few
hours earlier.
Besides failing to kill bin Laden, Clinton earned
the derision of Republicans and many Washington pundits, who accused
him of a wag-the-dog attempt to distract attention from the scandal
over his dalliance with Monica Lewinsky.
Millennium Plot
In
the months that followed, as the U.S. government weighed additional
countermoves, bin Ladens operatives prepared for another strike inside
the United States, this one to coincide with the Millennium
celebrations at the end of 1999.
An intelligence report from the
National Intelligence Council, which advises the President on emerging
threats, warned that al-Qaeda should be expected to retaliate in a
spectacular way for the 1998 cruise missile attack on Afghanistan.
Tipped
by Jordanian intelligence on al-Qaedas plans, the Clinton
administration ordered tightened security and got lucky when alert
border guards at Port Angeles, Washington, apprehended Ahmed Rassam,
who was on his way to Los Angeles to plant bombs at the international
airport.
At the height of Campaign 2000, al-Qaeda took aim at
another U.S. target, the destroyer USS Cole, as it docked in the port
of Aden. On Oct. 12, 2000, al-Qaeda operatives piloted a small boat
laden with explosives against the Coles hull, blasting a hole that
killed 17 crew members and wounded another 40.
Back in
Afghanistan, bin Laden anticipated and desired a retaliatory
strike. He hoped to lure the United States deeper into a direct
conflict with al-Qaeda, which would enhance his groups reputation and
assuming a clumsy U.S. response would radicalize the regions
Muslim populations.
Bin Laden evacuated al-Qaedas compound at
the Kandahar airport and fled into the desert near Kabul and then to
hideouts in Khowst and Jalalabad before returning to Kandahar where he
alternated sleeping among a half dozen residences.
But lacking
hard evidence proving who was behind the Cole bombing, Clinton didnt
order a retaliatory strike. Only during the transition to the Bush
presidency did U.S. intelligence reach a conclusion that the attack was
a full-fledged al-Qaeda operation under the direct supervision of bin
Laden.
However, Clinton left a decision on what do next up to
the incoming administration and it didnt agree with Clintons
assessment that al-Qaeda ranked at the top of the U.S. threat list.
From his opening days in office, Bush rebuffed recommendations from
almost anyone who shared Clintons anxiety about terrorism.
On
Jan. 31, 2001, just 11 days after Bushs Inauguration, a bipartisan
terrorism commission headed by former Senators Gary Hart and Warren
Rudman unveiled its final report, bluntly warning that urgent steps
were needed to prevent a terrorist attack on U.S. cities.
States,
terrorists and other disaffected groups will acquire weapons of mass
destruction, and some will use them, the report said. Americans will
likely die on American soil, possibly in large numbers. Hart
specifically noted that the nation was vulnerable to a weapon of mass
destruction in a high-rise building.
The 9/11 Commission later
wrote, in February 2001, a source reported that an individual whom he
identified as the big instructor (probably a reference to bin Laden)
complained frequently that the United States had not yet attacked.
According to the source, bin Laden wanted the United States to attack,
and if it did not he would launch something bigger.
By then,
Muhamed Atta and other al-Qaeda operatives were moving into position
for their next deadly operation. From safe houses in California and
Florida, they enrolled in American flight schools and took lessons on
how to fly commercial jetliners.
When congressional hearings on
the Hart-Rudman findings were set for early May 2001, the Bush
administration intervened to stop them. The presumed reasoning was that
the Bush administration didnt have much to show either in terms of
accomplishments or plans of its own.
Instead of embracing the
Hart-Rudman findings and getting to work on the recommendations, Bush
set up a White House committee, headed by Vice President Dick Cheney,
to examine the issue again and submit a report in fall 2001.
The
administration actually slowed down response to Hart-Rudman when
momentum was building in the spring, said former Republican House
Speaker Newt Gingrich.
Alarm Bells
By late spring 2001,
other alarm bells were ringing, frequently and loudly. Credible
evidence of an impending attack began pouring in to U.S. intelligence
agencies.
It all came together in the third week of June, said
Richard Clarke, who was the White House coordinator for
counterterrorism. The CIAs view was that a major terrorist attack was
coming in the next several weeks.
In late June, CIA Director
George Tenet was reported nearly frantic about the likelihood of an
al-Qaeda attack. He was described as running around with his hair on
fire because the warning system was blinking red.
On June 28,
a written intelligence summary to Bushs national security adviser
Condoleezza Rice warned that it is highly likely that a significant
al-Qaeda attack is in the near future, within several weeks.
On
July 5, 2001, at a meeting in the White House Situation Room,
counterterrorism chief Clarke told officials from a dozen federal
agencies that something really spectacular is going to happen here,
and its going to happen soon.
But instead of sparking an
intensified administration reaction to the danger, the flickering light
of White House interest in the terror threat continued to sputter.
By
July 10, senior CIA counterterrorism officials, including Cofer Black,
had collected a body of intelligence that they presented to Director
Tenet.
The briefing [Black] gave me literally made my hair
stand on end, Tenet wrote in his memoir, At the Center of the Storm.
When he was through, I picked up the big white secure phone on the
left side of my desk the one with a direct line to Condi Rice and
told her that I needed to see her immediately to provide an update on
the al-Qaida threat.
After reaching the White House, a CIA
briefer, identified in Tenets book only as Rich B., started his
presentation by saying: There will be a significant terrorist attack
in the coming weeks or months!
Rich B. then displayed a chart
showing seven specific pieces of intelligence gathered over the past
24 hours, all of them predicting an imminent attack, Tenet wrote. The
briefer presented another chart with the more chilling statements we
had in our possession through intelligence.
These comments
included a mid-June statement by Osama bin Laden to trainees about an
attack in the near future; talk about decisive acts and a big event;
and fresh intelligence about predictions of a stunning turn of events
in the weeks ahead, Tenet wrote.
Rich B. told Rice that the attack will be spectacular and designed to inflict heavy casualties against U.S. targets.
Attack
preparations have been made, Rich B. said about al-Qaedas plans.
Multiple and simultaneous attacks are possible, and they will occur
with little or no warning.
When Rice asked what needed to be
done, the CIAs Black responded, This country needs to go on a war
footing now. The CIA officials sought approval for broad covert-action
authority that had been languishing since March, Tenet wrote.
Despite
the July 10 briefing, other senior Bush administration officials
continued to pooh-pooh the seriousness of the al-Qaeda threat. Two
leading neoconservatives at the Pentagon Stephen Cambone and Paul
Wolfowitz suggested that the CIA might be falling for a
disinformation campaign, Tenet recalled.
But the evidence of an
impending attack continued to pour in. At one CIA meeting in late July,
Tenet wrote that Rich B. told senior officials bluntly, theyre coming
here, a declaration that was followed by stunned silence.
Stem Cells
Through
the sweltering heat of July, Bush turned his attention to an issue dear
to the hearts of his right-wing base, the use of human embryos in
stem-cell research.
Medical scientists felt stem cells promised
potential cures for debilitating and life-threatening injuries and
illnesses, from spinal damage to Alzheimers disease. Yet, despite this
promise, the Christian Right objected on moral grounds to the
extraction of cells from embryos, even if they were destined for
destruction as waste at fertility clinics.
Bush also was eyeing a month-long vacation at his ranch in Crawford, Texas.
While
Atta and his team made final preparations, the U.S. press corps also
missed the drama playing out inside the U.S. intelligence agencies. The
hot stories that steamy summer were shark attacks and the mystery of a
missing Capitol Hill intern Chandra Levy, whod had an affair with
Representative Gary Condit, a California Democrat.
The news
media pretended that its obsession with Levys disappearance was a
heartfelt concern to help her parents find their missing daughter; the
sexual gossip about Levy and Condit proved to be a fortuitous byproduct.
Yet,
as cable news played the Chandra Levy case 24/7, a far more significant
life-or-death drama was playing out inside the FBI and CIA.
At
the FBIs Phoenix field office, FBI agent Kenneth Williams noted the
curious fact that suspected followers of bin Laden were learning to fly
airplanes at schools inside the United States.
Citing an
inordinate number of individuals of investigative interest attending
American flight schools, Williams sent a July 10, 2001, memo to FBI
headquarters warning of the possibility of a coordinated effort by
Usama Bin Laden to send student pilots to the United States. But the
memo produced no follow-up.
National FBI officials seemed
paralyzed at the thought of taking proactive measures. Instead they
concentrated on what to do after an anticipated terror attack.
Then-acting
FBI Director Thomas Pickard later told the 9/11 Commission that he
discussed the intelligence threat reports with FBI special agents from
around the country in a conference call on July 19, 2001. But Pickard
said the focus was on having evidence response teams ready to respond
quickly in the event of an attack.
CIA officials encountered
similar foot-dragging at the White House. At least two officials in the
CIAs Counterterrorism Center were so apoplectic about the blasé
reactions from the Bush administration that they considered resigning
and going public with their concerns.
Instead, the CIA hierarchy made one more stab at startling Bush into action.
Blunt Warning
On
Aug. 6, 2001, the CIA dispatched senior analysts to brief Bush near the
beginning of his month-long vacation at his Crawford ranch. They
carried a highly classified report with the blunt title Bin Laden
Determined to Strike in US.
This Presidential Daily Brief
summarized the history of bin Ladens interest in launching attacks
inside the United States and ended with a carefully phrased warning
about recent intelligence threat data:
FBI information
indicates patterns of suspicious activity in this country consistent
with preparations for hijackings or other types of attacks, including
recent surveillance of federal buildings in New York. The FBI is
conducting approximately 70 full field investigations throughout the US
that it considers Bin Ladin-related. CIA and the FBI are investigating
a call to our Embassy in the UAE in May saying that a group of Bin
Ladin supporters was in the US planning attacks with explosives.
Bush
was not pleased by the CIAs intrusion on his vacation nor with the
reports lack of specific targets and dates. He glared at the CIA
briefer and snapped, All right, youve covered your ass, according to
an account in author Ron Suskinds The One Percent Doctrine, which
relied heavily on senior CIA officials.
Putting the CIAs
warning in the back of his mind and ordering no special response, Bush
returned to a vacation of fishing, clearing brush and working on a
speech about stem-cell research.
Yet, inside the FBI as the
month wore on, there were more warnings that went unheeded. FBI agents
in Minneapolis arrested Zacarias Moussaoui in August because of his
suspicious behavior in trying to learn to fly commercial jetliners when
he lacked even rudimentary skills.
FBI agent Harry Samit, who
interrogated Moussaoui, sent 70 warnings to his superiors about
suspicions that the al-Qaeda operative had been taking flight training
in Minnesota because he was planning to hijack a plane for a terrorist
operation.
But FBI officials in Washington showed criminal
negligence in blocking requests for a search warrant on Moussaouis
computer or taking other preventive action, Samit testified more than
four years later at Moussaouis criminal trial.
Another big part
of the problem was the lack of urgency at the top. Counterterrorism
coordinator Clarke said the 9/11 attacks might have been averted if
Bush had shown some initiative in shaking the trees by having
high-level officials from the FBI, CIA, Customs and other federal
agencies go back to their bureaucracies and demand any information
about the terrorist threat.
If they had, they might well have found the memos from the FBI agents in Arizona and Minnesota.
Clarke
contrasted President Clintons urgency over the intelligence warnings
that preceded the Millennium events with the lackadaisical approach of
Bush and his national security team.
In December 1999, we
received intelligence reports that there were going to be major
al-Qaeda attacks, Clarke said in an interview. President Clinton
asked his national security adviser Sandy Berger to hold daily meetings
with the attorney general, the FBI director, the CIA director and stop
the attacks.
Every day they went back from the White House to
the FBI, to the Justice Department, to the CIA and they shook the trees
to find out if there was any information. You know, when you know the
United States is going to be attacked, the top people in the United
States government ought to be working hands-on to prevent it and
working together.
Now, contrast that with what happened in the
summer of 2001, when we even had more clear indications that there was
going to be an attack. Did the President ask for daily meetings of his
team to try to stop the attack? Did Condi Rice hold meetings of her
counterparts to try to stop the attack? No.
In his book,
Against All Enemies, Clarke offered other examples of pre-9/11 mistakes
by the Bush administration, including a downgrading in importance of
the counterterrorism office, a shifting of budget priorities, an
obsession with Saddam Husseins Iraq and an emphasis on conservative
ideological issues, such as Reagans missile defense program.
A
more hierarchical White House structure also insulated Bush from direct
contact with mid-level national security officials who had specialized
on the al-Qaeda issue.
Possible Prevention