Homegrown Solar CAN Compete with China If...
by Jen Alic l Oilprice.com
While solar installers have
benefitted from the market, US solar manufacturers have taken a hit,
with solar panel prices falling by some 47% over last year due to global
oversupply.
Quite simply, competition means that solar
companies will have be a bit more innovative in reducing costs and
improving efficiency.
Not all solar companies are going under: First Solar
is doing fine. First Solar has net debt, indeed, but it stands to have a
positive cash flow for the next two years. Two other companies,
SunPower and Trina Solar, are also projecting a return to profitability
for 2013. By 2014, First Solar will be restructured into a
utility-focused company, giving up the rooftop solar market. This is how
it is adapting and changing with the market.
Solar companies
will not be successful until they give up on markets in which their only
recourse for competing is through government subsidies. This mindset is
what is weeding out the future solar winners from the losers.
General Electric
was hoping to produce thin-film solar panels which are less bulky and
more efficient than conventional solar panels. GE was hoping to be able
to produce these panels at a low enough price as to be attractive to the
average homeowner. However, those plans have been delayed (not
scrapped) because of the falling price of thin-film panels to the point
that GE cannot cover the cost of producing them. Still, GE is not ready
to throw in the towel. Instead, it's planning to improve its technology
in order to increase production efficiency to rival its Chinese
competitors. It's called innovation and it is essential for
competition-subsidies or no.
Things are not as bad as they seem. According to a recent report
from GTM Research and the solar Energy Industries Association, the
first quarter of 2012 was one of its best in terms of installation (506
mw to power over 350,000 homes). Furthermore, installed solar power is
forecast to increase 75% in 2012, adding another 3.3 gigawatts of solar
power to the current 4.4 gigawatts already installed across the country.
But the rooftop installation market will not be forging solar's future
in the US. The future will be in solar power installation by big utility
companies. While this category saw installation decline sharply in late
2011, the scale and scope of these projects is vast and construction
time-consuming, so quarterly figures are not as relevant.
There are also alternatives to subsidies that solar power could latch on to. The Solar Renewable Energy Certificates (SREC)
program grants anyone who installs solar access to the state market to
sell credits for every 1,000 kilowatt-hour of electricity generated.
This is currently on offer in New Jersey, and other states are
considering similar programs.
Slapping harsh tariffs on
Chinese solar panels was the result of some heavy-handed lobbying led
most relentlessly by German-owned SolarWorld AG, which is now planning
to file an anti-dumping case against Chinese firms in the European
market.
According to SolarWorld, the company will pursue
"anti-subsidy" and "anti-dumping" cases against Chinese solar panel
manufacturers in Europe in cooperation with a coalition of European
manufacturers.
This is a rather rich move coming from a company that has itself been built on government subsidies.
It also comes on the heels of a decision by the US Commerce Department
in May to impose a 31% tariff on the main Chinese manufacturers of solar
panels in the US-a move led by petitioning efforts from SolarWorld's US
branches.
China is not entirely to blame for the global
oversupply, of course. All manufacturers continued to produce massive
quantities of solar panels despite overstocked inventories.
What most fail to understand, however, is that the US wants (and needs)
Chinese clean-energy cash in order to make its clean-energy ambitions a
reality-especially at a time when federal subsidies are dwindling.
More important than the solar panel dumping debate is what China can do
for the US clean energy industry through cash investments-and China is
aggressively pursuing this avenue with the American blessing. China
invested $264 million last year in renewable-energy deals in the US.
Beijing-based GSR Ventures,
from its offices in Silicon Valley, helped fund electric battery
manufacturer Boston-Power Inc's move into China. Meanwhile, San
Francisco has come up with the ChinaSF program, whose ultimate goal is to lure Chinese investment in clean energy.
In the end, it will be Chinese cash and American access to (massive)
Chinese consumers for clean-energy products that saves the industry and
allows it to gain a competitive edge over fossil fuels.
As
such, slapping tariffs on Chinese solar panels for "dumping" is
tantamount to biting the hand that will feed the US clean-energy
industry. And as for US solar panel manufacturers, well, competition
means finding ways to survive in the real market, beyond subsidies that
were never intended to last forever. Solar companies must adapt or shut
down.